Gemini（Google DeepMind） · 引语索引
从编年史、人物与路线差异到基础设施、Agent 与 AI for Science；事实截止日 2026-07-25（原型口径）。内网直播综述材料已剔除。
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无法证实I've always believed that it's gonna be the most important invention that humanity will ever make.
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无法证实My Proposed Conjecture: "Any pattern that can be generated or found in nature can be efficiently discovered and modelled by a classical learning algorithm"
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无法证实Maybe I'll just make some money... and just work on AI research for a long time.
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无法证实I've always had this sort of screaming at me in my face and it's getting louder.
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无法证实while my mode is about 2025, my expected value is actually a bit higher at 2028… my 90% credibility region… comes out at 2018 to 2036.
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无法证实I will not hazard anything other than a broad guess, which is I think we are fifteen to fifty years away—probably closer to the lower end of that range.
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无法证实I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028. Now, it's just a 50% chance.
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无法证实I think it's entirely plausible but I'm not going to be surprised if it doesn't happen by then.
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无法证实a machine that can do the sorts of cognitive things that people can typically do, possibly more
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无法证实we stated in there [a] 20-year time scale, and I think we're actually pretty on track.
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无法证实I'm not sure I agree completely, but it's a pretty interesting thought experiment.
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无法证实In the next five to ten years, I think.
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无法证实Will the AI think it has reached AGI by 2030? I would say we will just fall short of that timeline, so I think it'll take a bit longer.
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无法证实I don't think we'll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it's slightly after that.
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无法证实I don't know who used it first, maybe Karpathy did.
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无法证实My estimate is sort of 50% chance by in the next five years, so by 2030 let's say.
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无法证实The reason I tend to steer away from AGI conversations is lots of people have very different definitions of it and the difficulty of the problem varies by like factors of a trillion.
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无法证实No, I think it's dead on track if you see what I mean… I think this is the fastest progress that anyone in the industry has managed.
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无法证实Today we're taking another big step on the path toward AGI and releasing Gemini 3.
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无法证实AI systems building AI systems.
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无法证实I agree on that.
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无法证实When we look back at this time, I think — maybe I'm thinking 10 years from now — I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now.
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无法证实the compression objective is the only training objective that I know right now ... which is completely non-gameable
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无法证实You set off AlphaZero in the morning and it starts off playing randomly. By lunchtime it's able to beat me… and then by the evening, it's stronger than the world champion.
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无法证实a series of powerful, multimodal AI models
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无法证实At a high level you can think of Gemini as combining some of the strengths of AlphaGo-type systems with the amazing language capabilities of the large models.
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无法证实I don't see a wall.
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无法证实The Gemini models are natively multimodal, as they are trained jointly across text, image, audio, and video.
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无法证实the models are multimodal from the beginning and can natively output images using discrete image tokens
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无法证实Until now, the standard approach… involved training separate components for different modalities and then stitching them together… We designed Gemini to be natively multimodal, pre-trained from the start on different modalities.
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无法证实running up to 1 million tokens consistently, achieving the longest context window of any large-scale foundation model yet
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无法证实Gemini 1.5 Pro also shows impressive 'in-context learning' skills, meaning that it can learn a new skill from information given in a long prompt, without needing additional fine-tuning.
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无法证实You can think of [long context] as the model's working memory… and the precision of recalling things from that long context is also quite important.
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无法证实AlphaZero-like planning mechanisms on top… this is what's missing from our current large models.
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无法证实probably about the maximum
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无法证实Our history in agents is longer than our generalized model work.
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无法证实Arithmetic is very, very cheap, and moving data around is comparatively much more expensive.
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无法证实As we know from our experience with AlphaGo, responses improve when we give these models more time to think.
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无法证实Post-training: Still a total greenfield.
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无法证实We work quite hard on the persona, which we call it internally… more succinct, more to the point, helpful… I find it more pleasant to brainstorm with.
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无法证实You paid a thousand picojoules in order to do your one picojoule multiply.
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无法证实you're trying to design a chip starting today and that design might take two years before it even lands in a data center… So you're trying to predict two to six years out what ML computations will people want to run… having people with interesting ML research ideas really enables us to then get interesting hardware features put into TPU N plus two.
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无法证实I agree with you, we're kind of using duct tape right now. So like shove it all in the context window.
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无法证实a million tokens isn't that much. It's only like 20 minutes.
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无法证实AlphaGo was an agent. Even our original Atari work… they were agents. Maybe we were a bit ahead of our time.
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无法证实Last year, I outlined our vision of extending Gemini's incredible multimodal capabilities to become a world model… Now we're taking the next big step. I'm excited to announce Gemini Omni. Our new model that can create anything from any input.
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无法证实We're starting with video, but over time, Omni will be able to generate any output from any input. That's always been our goal for Gemini, and it's why we built it multimodal from the start.
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无法证实I felt like we would make more progress on continual learning and more not-so-structured model architectures… we are not doing that yet. But what we're doing seems to work.
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无法证实To disagree a bit though, we're pre-trained. I mean, it's not like you're the first human.
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无法证实It feels almost impossible, if you asked me a few years ago, this approach would work… But it did happen.
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无法证实We have philosophers here and ethicists, but also other types of scientists, physicists… I tried to build a sort of new type of Bell Labs, but in its golden era.
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无法证实There's just too much brand risk in large companies to ever launch anything fun.
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无法证实By creating Google DeepMind, I believe we can get to that future faster.
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无法证实we need to work with greater speed, stronger collaboration and execution, and to simplify the way we make decisions to focus on achieving the biggest impact
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无法证实The research advances from the phenomenal Brain and DeepMind teams laid much of the foundations of the current AI industry, from Deep Reinforcement Learning to Transformers.
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无法证实80 or 90 percent of the innovations come from one or the other.
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无法证实Eventually we pulled DeepMind into Google and in a way DeepMind was never independent and isn't independent now.
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无法证实Google has spent the last 15 years in Europe, on the witness stand… if Google then goes and creates an experience that disintermediates the third party content creator, then that undermines everything.
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无法证实the first realization of the vision we had when we formed Google DeepMind earlier this year
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无法证实All the user prompts and outputs in the video are real, shortened for brevity.
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无法证实We made it to inspire developers.
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无法证实I think what the ChatGPT moment did that changed was, and fair play to them to do that, was they demonstrated, I think somewhat surprisingly to themselves as well, that the public were ready to embrace these systems and actually find value in these systems. Impressive though they are, I guess, when we're working on these systems, mostly you're focusing on the flaws and the things they don't do and hallucinations… But interestingly, it turned out that even with those flaws, many tens of millions of people still find them very useful.
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无法证实Gemini has been mostly top-down, which has been very good in some sense… But it does lead to some incentive to say, 'Hey, what I'm doing is working great.'… There's less of an incentive to say, 'Hey, what I'm doing is not actually working that well.'
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无法证实There's less of an incentive to say, 'Hey, what I'm doing is not actually working that well.'
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无法证实I mean, I think I actually wrote a one-page memo saying we were being stupid by fragmenting our resources… we were fragmenting not only our compute across those separate efforts, but also our best people. And so I said, this is just stupid.
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无法证实It was a little bit organizationally complicated, and time zone-wise, there were lots of people in London, lots of people here. Eight hours apart is never a recipe for easy collaboration, but I think we've done a really good job of navigating that.
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无法证实it's never easy bringing two organizations together, but I think everyone realized that this is the right moment… I think both organizations acted with great urgency on that and enabled it.
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无法证实I don't think there would be big, major disagreements.
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无法证实It didn't just win the match — importantly it actually came up with new creative strategies and ideas that had never been seen before even though we've played Go for thousands of years.
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无法证实Innovate architecture of AlphaFold2: a hybrid system (Jumper et al., Nature 2021) — Built in evolutionary and physical constraints into the architecture without impacting the learning / Full end-to-end system with recycling stage that iteratively refines the structure prediction
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无法证实You can see it as a sort of super coding agent… It doesn't just propose a piece of code or an edit, it actually produces a result that maybe nobody was aware of.
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无法证实whenever we do a systematic study, on any given problem an AI tool has a success rate of maybe 1% or 2%. It's just that they can buy scale, and you just pick the winners.
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无法证实I'd argue we've already had one of those moments with AlphaFold.
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无法证实simulations is the way we can address some of what we maybe think of as social sciences, like economics
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无法证实the dream is to do almost all the exploration, which is 99%... in silico
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无法证实only comes in lightweight flavors
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无法证实we probably don't want to add training objectives which would encourage things like deceit
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无法证实Because we are defining the frontier with 2.5 Pro DeepThink, we are taking a little bit of extra time to conduct more frontier safety evaluations and get further input from safety experts. As part of that, we are going to make it available to trusted testers via the Gemini API to get their feedback before making it widely available.
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无法证实This model is so good at coding that it triggered our frontier safety early warning trigger for cyber uplift… it's not the critical capability level yet. But it's early warning and we're starting our response plan.
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无法证实something may go wrong and hopefully it's just sort of medium sized
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无法证实I don't feel like that necessarily anymore
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无法证实It takes up all my mental energy all day, every day.
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无法证实① So whatever is designed, and I have some ideas on this and I'll probably be talking about this later this year, it needs to be dynamic, which is a word that doesn't usually go with regulation, right? So it's got to be light, fleet-footed and able to be informed by the latest developments so that it can adapt to where the actual risk is… 〔同一段发言之内，① 与 ② 之间省略 7 句〕 ② And I think some form of really almost smart regulation is required that is dynamic and can adapt with the times very quickly and probably informed by the leading labs because they're seeing what's actually at the coal face.
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无法证实Our job is to be winning in both cases, right?
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无法证实it's almost an overreaction to the underreaction
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无法证实We weren't the first company to do search. We weren't the first company to do email. We weren't the first company to build a browser.
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无法证实We're the only organization that has the full stack — from TPUs and hardware, data centers, the cloud business, the frontier lab, to all these great products.
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无法证实我不得不跟很多 Google 内部的团队，比如 legal 团队、operation 团队合作，跟他们说这个时代你是等不起的，你等了 30 天以后，那些非常有使命感的 researcher 都跑了。
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无法证实感觉可能比 996 还要更辛苦一点。
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